Will Afghanistan Become a Safe Haven for Global Terrorism Once Again?

Author: Bashir Safi

Twitter: @BashirSafiAFG

The messy withdrawal of U.S. forces followed by Kabul’s sudden fall to the Taliban has come as a massive morale boost to Islamist groups around the world. Jihadists find the Taliban’s triumph and return to power a propaganda victory that can be leveraged and used to revive dying Islamist and Jihadist insurgencies across the world. Thirty years ago, Moscow’s defeat in Afghanistan was used by Jihadist and anti-communist fronts as a propaganda tool that galvanised other Islamist causes, and following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, Jihadists flocked to Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda thrived, and the country became a hub for extremists.

Hoping for legitimacy, the Taliban in its first press conference, asserted that no one will be allowed to use Afghanistan for attacks against foreign nations. The group, however, hasn’t publicly broken with Al-Qaeda and refused U.S. demands to sever relations with the terrorist organisation. The Taliban’s rapid takeover of Afghanistan not only empowers Islamist factions morally but validates their guerilla strategy and patience for years to come. Foreign extremist organisations, Islamist preachers, and radical recruiters will leverage the Taliban’s victory as the first-of-its-kind victory by a radical Sunni group in recent times against the western world. This narrative has already begun appearing in propaganda messaging by radical Islamists on social media - with some stating that the “western crusader campaign” against the Islamic world has come to an end following its defeat in Afghanistan. It will also prove to be an effective public messaging tool that will further assist the Taliban as it charts a way forward in Afghanistan. The victory is not just a morale boost - but an Afghanistan under Taliban rule can provide support to global Islamist outfits, generate illicit revenues, recruit fighters, and shelter fugitives. 

To name a few, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is the first foreign militant group that renewed allegiance to the Taliban after they swept into the Afghan capital of Kabul.  Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) also celebrated the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, vowing to continue its fight against the west. 

The return of emir

Following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks and the toppling of the Taliban regime, notorious terrorist leaders went into hiding, and insurgencies were mainly financed by a criminal and black market economy. Now, under the Taliban’s rule and the return of the so-called Amir-ul-Momineen (leader of the believers) - the Taliban will open doors to many insurgent groups around the world. Although now, unlike their brief rule between 1996-2001, the Taliban may think twice before harbouring foreign terrorist groups that threaten U.S. interests. The group however has not yet proven that it can be trusted, particularly as long as it maintains overtly close relations with terror organisations and radical preachers across the world that call for the deaths of non-Muslims, Muslims of other sects, Muslims that do not adhere to their austere and radical interpretation of Islam, and general armed militancy. The Taliban still believes that it has a religious obligation to safeguard Muslims around the world. This false narrative - that a radical Islamist group in one Muslim country speaks for the 1.8 billion Muslims across the world has been a common theme of Islamist preachers across the world that have reveled in the group’s victory. 

Geopolitically, territorial disputes like Kashmir and Palestine charged with religious sentiments will always attract the Taliban’s attention, despite many Palestinians seeing their freedom from Israeli occupation through a national lens rather than a religious one. If the Taliban’s radicalised extremist strategy is maneuvered well, it will most likely continue being an irritant to America and its allies in the region.

Jihadists’ new plight in Kashmir

Growing religious extremism in Pakistan has now become a real pain point for India. Afghan and Pakistani extremists will flock into Kashmir, a likely breeding ground as the next destination spot for jihadists, particularly as India grapples with its own rise in extremist Hindutva hate speech against Muslims. The rise in Islamophobia amongst extremist elements of India is an easy cause for groups such as Al-Qaeda, the TTP, and myriad other extremist groups to rally to. On 5, August 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in India stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status which sparked anger among Pakistan-based extremist organisations and the Pakistani government. Lashkar-e-Taiba, Sipah-e-Sahaba, and Jaish-e-Mohammed are amongst other Pakistani insurgent outfits that have a long fighting history in Kashmir. 

The Taliban victory in Afghanistan is bad news for India’s war on terror. Political Islam is an effective tool for Pakistani proxy groups to fight Indian forces under the false pretense of a noble cause for Jihadists – a Kashmir that is occupied by Hindus. This tactic gives insurgent groups the ability to recruit and finance a so-called Jihad. India and Pakistan maintain an antagonistic relationship, and Pakistan continues to provide sanctuary for Islamists. The fall of Afghanistan now redirects Jihadist attention on Kashmir in hopes of retaking the disputed territory.    

Conflicts in the Middle East

The Taliban’s de facto leader, Mullah Baradar had a meeting with Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Gaza-based Palestinian militant organization in Doha several weeks ago applauding the Taliban’s territorial gains. After the Taliban takeover of Kabul, Hamas, in a celebratory statement called the Taliban’s triumph a “demise of the American occupation”  - vowing Palestinians will also achieve victory. Most Palestinians however, do not view their cause as a religious one, but rather, a national one. 

Struggling for legitimacy, the Taliban’s support for Al-Qaeda will likely stay discreet. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, has already sent its congratulatory message to the Taliban for toppling the Afghan government. Radical extremists tied to the Idlib-based Jihadist groups in Syria have also applauded the Taliban’s victory, with some tweeting for a similar victory against the Assad regime, Iran and Russia. Formal communication between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban has been infrequent, but the group has maintained an embedded presence amongst the Taliban’s ranks. For now, the Taliban are not publicly supporting Al-Qaeda in fear of the United States not recognizing their government, but as previously stated, they have refused to publicly break with the terrorist organisation. 

Will Al-Qaeda plot another attack from Afghanistan?

If the Taliban stays in power, Al-Qaeda’s relationship with the Taliban is likely to challenge America’s capability to counter the new threats emanating from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. The revival of Al-Qaeda will likely attract Salafi-jihadist groups’ return back to the region, particularly those that fled Afghanistan following the U.S. invasion in 2001. Recently, there have been reports that Al-Qaeda has built training camps in Afghanistan. Truthfully, the Taliban military takeover of Afghanistan was a major intelligence failure for the West. Despite that, in a lawless country under the Taliban, it is likely that another major terrorist attack could be plotted from Afghanistan.  

Bashir Safi is a Ph.D. Student at the Helms School of Government. He is also a former Advisor at the National Security Council of Afghanistan, and an Advisor at the U.S. Department of Defence.